Ellwood's Grove Is Ready for Monarchs This Fall. Will the Butterflies Come Back?

Last winter's final count at Ellwood Mesa found one monarch. That was in early March 2026, and it closed out a season whose highest count was 20 butterflies, back in October. Over the same stretch, the grove those butterflies were supposed to use got new trail and drainage work, a temporary footbridge and replanting.

So the 2026–27 season starts with the habitat in better condition than the population it was rebuilt for. The first statewide survey window opens October 17. This season you're less likely to find a postcard cluster and more likely to watch a migration try to recover. Some of what helps it happens away from the eucalyptus, in gardens a short drive from the grove.

Two winters, side by side

For the long-time Ellwood walker, the change has been steep. During the 2023–24 season, the Xerces Society reported that Ellwood Main went from 7,643 monarchs in early December to 16,200 in early January. Then the bottom dropped out.

These figures come from different sites, survey dates and counting groups, so they can't be compared one for one. Across California, the Xerces Society's Western Monarch Count recorded about 12,260 monarchs at 249 sites in late November through early December 2025. That is the third-lowest total since the count began in 1997, behind 1,901 in 2020 and 9,119 in 2024. By the late-season window, which closed January 11, 2026, the statewide tally had fallen to 6,464 at 193 sites.

Some of last winter's local losses had a cause close to home. As Noozhawk reported in March, Charis van der Heide of Althouse and Meade, a senior biologist who counts the Ellwood sites under contract with the City of Goleta, said the January winter storms may have killed some butterflies. Overwintering monarchs rely on a "safety in numbers strategy," and a small cluster has less of that protection. She also told Noozhawk why the count still matters:

"While the low numbers this year are very sad to witness, we can find hope that the western population was able to rebound after the historically low numbers of 2020, and there is the possibility that they will rebound next season."

Because so few butterflies showed up, Noozhawk reported, biologists counted less often than the planned every-other-week schedule.

The grove got its repairs anyway

The City of Goleta kept working on the habitat through those lean winters. Phase 1 of its Monarch Butterfly Habitat Management Plan covers 60 of the plan's 90 acres. The city lists it as in progress, with dead-tree removal, planting, hazard-vegetation work and trail repairs among the tasks. In a March 2025 update in the city's Goleta Monarch Press, the city said Sage Trail Alliance had finished drainage and trail improvements in the main grove and rerouted trails to the viewing areas. The city's history page lists the temporary footbridge and continued volunteer planting in 2025 and says restoration and vegetation management are continuing in 2026.

If you haven't walked to the grove in a couple of years, the trail may not match what you remember. The project isn't finished either. The city still warns about falling trees and eroding trails, advises against visiting in rain or when trails are muddy, and asks visitors to stay on marked trails and out of roped-off areas. After the storms last January, the advice about rain applies to the butterflies as much as to your shoes.

This season's calendar

The usual pattern, according to the city, is that monarchs reach the coast in October, settle into groves in November, and peak at Ellwood in mid-December. The statewide survey windows for this season are:

1. Early season: October 17 to November 1, 2026
2. Mid-season, the traditional Thanksgiving Count: November 14 to December 6, 2026
3. Late season, the New Year's window: December 26, 2026 to January 10, 2027

As of October 12, the city's butterfly grove page still says its 2026–27 count chart "will be posted here in early October 2026," and no chart was up yet. No early-arrival numbers for Goleta have been published so far this fall. Bookmark that page and check it after the first survey window closes.

The practical details haven't changed:

• Parking: Free, at the Ellwood Mesa Open Space and Sperling Preserve lot, 7729 Hollister Avenue, across from Ellwood Elementary. The walk to the grove is a little over half a mile.
• Hours: The city's FAQ lists grove entry from 8 a.m. to sunset.
• Timing: Monarchs stay clustered on mornings and cool days. Warm afternoons bring more flying. The Xerces Society says flight picks up in sunny weather above 55°F. With a small population, a cool morning is the best chance of seeing butterflies together in one spot.
• Rules: No touching or bothering the butterflies, dogs on leash, and no bikes, horses or motorized vehicles in the grove.

Next door, the Land Trust for Santa Barbara County's Coronado Butterfly Preserve is open daily from dawn to dusk. The Land Trust recommends visiting November through February and says the biggest numbers usually show up in December and January.

One thing has no date yet. The city says it is reviving its Monarch Butterfly Docent Program and lists a coordinator contact, but it hasn't posted a docent schedule for this season.

Following the butterflies you can't see

When a grove holds only a few dozen monarchs, there's less to see on the trail, and tracking data fills in some of the picture. Last winter, the Santa Barbara Independent reported that van der Heide had fitted five Ellwood monarchs with tiny trackers. More than 400 had been tagged nationwide, and anyone can follow the tagged butterflies through the Project Monarch Science app. By early March, the trackers suggested the Goleta butterflies had already left on their spring migration. The city hasn't said whether a new round of tags goes out this season.

The policy side moved recently too. As of October 1, 2026, the monarch is proposed for listing as a threatened species but isn't listed under the Endangered Species Act. On September 30, the parties in Center for Biological Diversity v. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service filed a proposed settlement. If the court approves it, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service must submit a final listing determination to the Federal Register by June 6, 2030. Monarch Joint Venture notes that the agreement sets a deadline and doesn't decide the outcome. At the state level, a multi-agency report released in May, "Conservation Priorities for the Western Monarch Butterfly in California," sets five priority actions for the next three years. One of them is improving the supply of native plants.

The part of the season that happens in Goleta yards

That native-plant priority matters locally. In the same Noozhawk report, van der Heide said residents can grow winter-flowering nectar plants to feed overwintering butterflies, and native milkweed in spring to support migration and breeding. Near the coast, the milkweed half of that advice comes with conditions, because the published guidance gives different distances:

• Santa Barbara Botanic Garden says households within 5 miles of the coast should skip milkweed and plant nectar sources for adult butterflies.
• The Xerces Society generally advises no milkweed within 1 mile of the coast from Santa Barbara south, or within 5 miles north of Santa Barbara, because milkweed near overwintering sites can disrupt migration.
• A Santa Barbara County monarch habitat guide says no milkweed within 1 mile of coastal overwintering grounds and recommends locally native milkweeds farther away.

All three agree on tropical milkweed, Asclepias curassavica. It stays green through winter and can support the OE parasite or year-round breeding.

Nectar plants fit every Goleta yard. The county guide lists manzanita, blooming January through April; hillside gooseberry and pink-flowering currant, January through March; and willows, February through March. The same guide admits researchers don't fully know which plants monarchs use for nectar in winter. The Xerces Society's California list adds bluedicks and seaside fleabane. The California Department of Fish and Wildlife recommends buying pesticide-free nursery plants and cutting back on pesticides near overwintering sites from October through March.

Places to find the plants this fall:

• Santa Barbara Botanic Garden Fall Plant Sale: November 7, 2026, 1 to 3 p.m. for the public, reservation required. The Garden's nursery is also open year-round, seven days a week.
• Island Seed & Feed: Its nursery carries locally propagated natives, including sea cliff buckwheat and hummingbird sage.
• Santa Barbara Natives: A Gaviota Coast grower with about 100 popular local species ready to sell. Visits are by appointment with a $100 minimum.

Growing Solutions grows site-specific native plants for restoration work, including the City of Goleta's Ellwood Mesa project. Some of the plants going into the grove's restoration come out of that same local nursery work.

At David Magid, we keep track of Ellwood's count updates the same way we follow everything else on Goleta's western edge. If you live near the bluffs and want to talk through how a habitat project like this one fits into owning a home nearby, schedule a consultation and we'll walk through it together.